In any given year, the probability of an earthquake greater than Magnitude 6 occurring in the Garhwal Himalayas is 0.04....

Question

In any given year, the probability of an earthquake greater than Magnitude 6 occurring in the Garhwal Himalayas is 0.04. The average time between successive occurrences of such earthquakes is ____ years.

Accepted Answer

Average time between successive earthquakes = 1/0.04 = 25 years. Answer: 25 When events occur independently each year with a fixed probability p, the number of years until the next occurrence follows a geometric distribution. The expected (average) waiting time is 1/p years. With p = 0.04, the average inter-arrival time is 1/0.04 = 25 years.